Stock futures whipsawed as election outcome hangs in balance

Stock futures fluctuated between gains and losses early Wednesday morning as investors took in the flow of results for the 2020 election, which has so far produced no clear signs of a victor for the White House.

Just before 8 a.m. ET, the S&P 500 was higher by more than 1.3%, and the Nasdaq outperformed with a gain of more than 3%, though the index came off its highs of the overnight session. The Dow shook off earlier declines to rise 0.4%, or more than 100 points.

The results so far point to a presidential race that remains too close to call, with a number of consequential battleground states, including Pennsylvania, still unlikely to produce results for the next couple of days.

As of Wednesday morning, former Vice President Joe Biden had 238 electoral votes and President Donald Trump had 213, according to the Associated Press. Candidates require 270 electoral votes to be named the winner of the election.

• States called for Trump: Ky., W. Va., S.C., Ala., Miss., Tenn., Okla., Ark., Ind., N.D., S.D., Wyo., La., Neb. (4 of 5 electoral votes), Kan., Mo., Idaho, Utah, Ohio, Iowa, Mont., Fla., Texas

• States called for Biden: Vt., Va., Conn., Del., Ill., Md., Mass., N.J., R.I., N.Y., N.M., D.C., Colo., N.H., Calif., Ore., Wash., Hawaii, Minn., Ariz., Maine (3 of 4 electoral votes)

The flurry of incoming results stirred up volatility during the overnight session. Contracts on the major equity indices opened higher as overnight trading began, but gains in the Dow and S&P 500 futures flattened as the race tightened, including when the Associated Press projected Trump would win the swing state of Florida, which a number of pundits believed would go to Biden. Other states that had been viewed as toss-ups ended up tilting in Biden’s favor, including Arizona, which Trump had won in 2016.

Contracts on the Nasdaq, however, have held decidedly higher. At about 10:15 p.m. ET, Nasdaq futures surged nearly 4% to trigger a circuit breaker to cap further gains. The index held higher by more than 3% around 8 a.m. ET, with traders piling into tech shares that throughout much of the pandemic had served as a safe haven sector amid uncertainty over the economic outlook.

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In the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields tumbled across the long end of the curve to unwind much of their advance from their past couple weeks. The 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 80 basis points before recovering some losses, as investors pulled back their expectations for a Democratic sweep that would likely have brought about bigger government spending. With some Senate races still needing to be settled, Democrats were tracking Wednesday morning to net a gain of just one seat in the Senate, whereas at least three were needed to take majority control of the chamber.

“Two things are certain – the Blue Wave has evaporated and the polls have been horribly wrong – again,” Sean Darby, Jefferies global equity strategist, wrote in a note Wednesday morning. “Voting has not matched polled intentions. As we write, it is still too close to tall the winner but it seems the Republicans will hold the Senate and the Democrats the House. It is a murky world for equity outcomes. We expect the S&P 500 to churn through the week.”

Overseas, European stocks also traded with volatility and slid at the open before cutting losses and pushing higher, after Trump prematurely and falsely claimed to have won the election in a late-night address in the White House.

“This is a fraud on the American republic. This is an embarrassment to our country,” Trump said. “We were getting ready to win this election. Frankly, we did win this election.”

Trump, who has previously challenged the veracity of mail-in voting, said he would be “going to the U.S. Supreme Court” over the results of the election, opening up the possibility of a drawn-out, contested election that market participants had braced for heading into the results. Biden’s campaign, for its party, has suggested it would be willing to fight Trump in court.

With stocks trending mostly higher regardless, markets have remained “remarkably calm and are surprisingly not really pricing much risk, or concerns around a long contested battle ahead,” said Deutsche Bank analysts including Jim Reid in an overnight note. “Fiscal stimulus looks a longer way off at the moment than it did last night,” they added.

But other experts warned that the lingering uncertainty over the election result could spark volatility in markets for the days to come.

“A conclusive result could take a few days or more, potentially spurring market volatility and leaving open the possibility of a contested result,” analysts from BlackRock Investment Institute wrote in a note Wednesday morning. “We prefer to look through any volatility and stay with high-conviction positions amid any selloffs in risk assets. Likely low trading volumes in this period could magnify market moves.”

The election came against an increasingly dire pandemic situation in the United States. More than 93,000 cases were reported across the country on Monday, for the second-highest daily total since the start of the coronavirus pandemic, according to data cited by the New York Times. Well over 9 million cases in total have been recorded since the start of the pandemic in the U.S., and more than 230,000 deaths have resulted across the country. And the economic consequences of the virus have been severe: About 11 million jobs have been lost since the start of the pandemic, and the unemployment rate has held at an elevated near-8%.

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7:55 a.m. ET: Stock futures push higher as outcome remains uncertain in key states

Contracts on the three major indices turned higher as the regular trading day Wednesday neared, though the outcome of the election remained uncertain.

Here were the main moves in markets, as of 7:55 a.m. ET:

• S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 3,404.25, up 42.75 points or 1.27%

• Dow futures (YM=F): 27,487.00, up 111 points or 0.41%

• Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 11,605.5, up 339.75 points or 3.02%

• Crude (CL=F): +$0.87 (+2.31%) to $38.53 a barrel

• Gold (GC=F): -$2.50 (-0.13%) to $1,907.90 per ounce

• 10-year Treasury (^TNX): -7.1 bps to yield 0.81%

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6:31 a.m. ET: Uber, Lyft shares surge after Prop 22 passes in California

Shares of ride-hailing companies Uber (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) jumped 11% and 15%, respectively, in early trading Wednesday morning after a ballot initiative in California was passed to allow them to continue classifying their drivers as contractors with flexibility over their hours rather than employees eligible for benefits. About 58% of 11 million voters cast ballots in favor of Prop 22, according to the Associated Press.

“With the controversial AB5 legislation enacted in the State of California which was focused on classifying drivers as employees and not contractors, in essence the underlying business models for Uber and Lyft were hanging in the balance if Prop 22 did not pass in California to keep the contractor model,” analyst Dan Ives of WedBush wrote in a note early Wednesday. “To this point, 58% of voters in California voted YES and passed Prop 22 which will send a ripple impact as investors were worried if Prop 22 did not pass this would significantly impact the core DNA of the Gig Economy and ultimately the revenue model for Lyft and Uber.”

“With Lyft deriving roughly 16% of revenues from California and Uber roughly 5%, both companies were looking at potentially leaving the state or significantly altering its business model if this legislation did not pass during voting yesterday,” Ives added.

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6:01 a.m. ET: Nevada tables election updates until Thursday

Nevada, a swing state that was anticipated to go narrowly to Biden, is set to hold off on further election results until Thursday morning, according to a Twitter update from the Elections Division of the Nevada Secretary of State. Biden’s lead as of Wednesday morning was of just about 8,000 votes in the state. Trump lost Nevada by only a slim margin in 2016. The Associated Press has not called the results for Nevada, which carries 6 electoral votes.

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4:50 a.m. ET Wednesday: Stock futures fluctuate with election results uncertain

Here were the main moves in markets, as of 4:50 a.m. ET Wednesday

• S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 3,382.75, up 21.25 points or 0.63%

• Dow futures (YM=F): 27,342.00, down 34 points or 0.12%

• Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 11,552.00, up 286.25 points or 2.54%

• Crude (CL=F): +$0.58 (+1.54%) to $38.24 a barrel

• Gold (GC=F): -$17.50(-0.92%) to $1,892.90 per ounce

• 10-year Treasury (^TNX): -8.5 bps to yield 0.796%

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